ARkStorm Scenario

An ARkStorm is plausible, perhaps inevitable. Such storms have happened in California's historic record (1861-62), but 1861-62 is not a freak event, not the last time the state will experience such a severe storm, and not the worst case. The geologic record shows 6 megastorms more severe than 1861-1862 in California in the last 1800 years, and there is no reason to believe similar events won't occur again. - USGS

READ: ARkStorm Scenario


What is CoSMoS?

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a modeling approach that projects coastal flooding and shoreline change (sandy beach change and cliff retreat) due to both sea-level rise and coastal storms driven by climate change. CoSMoS was designed to understand the present-day and future vulnerability of the Southern California coast in support of federal and state climate change guidance, local vulnerability assessments, and emergency response.


MISSION BAY: CoSMoS model flood projections

Slide to view estimated coastal inundation at Mission Bay, San Diego; 200cm sea level rise & 100 year Storm Scenario Frequency


DEL MAR: CoSMoS model flood projections

Slide to view estimated coastal inundation at Del Mar; 200cm sea level rise & 100 year Storm Scenario Frequency


SAN DIEGO RIVER: CoSMoS model flood projections

Slide to view current view and estimated coastal inundation along San Diego River; Amount of Sea Level Rise: 5.7 feet


CORONADO: CoSMoS model flood projections

Slide to view current view and estimated coastal inundation at Coronado; Amount of Sea Level Rise: 5.7 feet


IMPERIAL BEACH: CoSMoS model flood projections

Slide to view current view and estimated coastal inundation at IMPERIAL BEACH; Amount of Sea Level Rise: 5.7 feet