Opening Day is finally here, and the San Diego Padres begin the 162-game regular season on Thursday afternoon when they host the Detroit Tigers at Petco Park.
After losing to the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round of the National League postseason last year, the Padres will be looking to reach the playoff in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history.
Here's a look at some of the changes that happened since the end of last season and some of the key storylines to follow over the next six months:
ANOTHER NEW MANAGER
One week after the 2025 posteason, manager Mike Shildt stepped down from his post, citing health and personal reasons. That meant President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller needed to hire his fifth full-time manager since taking over as general manager in December 2014.
After an interview process that included several big names — most notably Hall of Famer Albert Pujols — Preller decided to go with someone he knows well in former Padres reliever Craig Stammen.
Since retiring from his pitching career in 2022, Stammen had served as a special assistant to Preller. The well-respected Stammen already had a personal relationship with many of his new players, including stars Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
He received high marks during his first Spring Training, in which several players complemented Stammen for the efficient and focused tone the rookie skipper set during camp.
PUTTING TOGETHER A PITCHING STAFF
One of the biggest question marks heading into the season is the starting pitching staff. Top-of-the-rotation workhorse Dylan Cease signed for over $200 million with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Padres are hoping the return of Joe Musgrove can fill some of that void, but Musgrove will start the season on the injured list after missing all of the 2025 season following Tommy John surgery.
Nick Pivetta was the steal of last offseason. After signing at the start of Spring Training, Pivetta turned in a career year in 2025, finishing sixth in the National League Cy Young voting. The Padres will need more of the same from the Canadian right-hander, and this week, Stammen named Pivetta as his Opening Day starter against two-time defending AL Cy Young Award-winner Tarik Skubal of the Tigers.
Behind Pivetta will be Michael King, who signed a new deal with the Padres after testing free agency for the first time. He'll be able to opt out of his contract and become a free agent again at the end of 2026 after dealing with a nerve issue and knee injury for much of 2025.
Randy Vasquez will open the season as the Padres No. 3 starter. Vasquez turned in a strong spring, and regularly hit 97 mph on the radar gun after earning praise for completing a strong offseason program.
The last two spots in the rotation will go to veterans on one-year deals. Former Dodgers ace Walker Buehler will try to reinvent himself after a second Tommy John surgery, while ex-Rockies star German Marquez is also looking to bounce back after struggling following the same arm issues in 2022.
The Padres are also expected to add rotation depth early in the season when Matt Waldron and free agent signing Griffin Canning get fully healthy following stints on the injured list.
DEEPER LINEUP
After struggling with lineup depth for much of 2025, the Padres solved some of those issues by acquiring catcher Freddy Fermin, outfielder Ramon Laureano and first baseman Ryan O'Hearn at the trade deadline.
O'Hearn signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates as a free agent in the offseason, but Femin and Laureano are back, and the addition of free agents Nick Castellanos and Miguel Andujar give the Padres a chance to add power, especially against left-handed pitching.
Still, it will be the returning stars who could have the biggest impact on the season. Fernando Tatis Jr. is aiming for a career season after a strong showing for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts will be asked for consistent production as high-priced veterans. Jackson Merrill is poised to bounce back after dealing with multiple trips to the injured list in 2025, while fellow left-handers Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets turned in strong performances at the plate in the Cactus League.
POWERHOUSE PEN
Finally, there seems to be little doubt that the Padres will find their biggest strength in the bullpen. Mason Miller is now the closer after Robert Suarez signed with the Atlanta Braves in free agency. Acquired at the trade deadline in a costly deal for top prospect Leodalis DeVries, Miller might be the most unhittable pitcher on planet Earth right now, with a fastball that has been clocked at close to 105 mph.
The rest of the pen is also nasty, with All-Stars Adrian Morejon and Jason Adam back as two of the league's best setup arms, and a massive amount of depth behind those arms including Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, and plenty of other options that can cycle up and down from the minor leagues throughout 2026.
PREDICTION
Analytical systems like FanGraphs and PECOTA see the Padres taking a step back this year, projecting only 79 to 83 wins, which likely wouldn't be enough to get the team back to the playoffs.
Still, while starting pitching is a real concern, the Padres lineup should be better and deeper than last season. More power bats mean the team shouldn't finish second-to-last in all of baseball in home runs, which they did in 2026. Plus, the top-tier bullpen will be able to hold almost any lead the Padres get after the fifth inning.
Put it all together, and the Padres should be able to win 87-90 games again, and make it back to the postseason as a National League Wild Card.
