SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — A bluff in Encinitas collapsed this weekend, and Carlsbad has declared a state of emergency — but scientists warn conditions along the Southern California coast could get worse.
Researchers have been tracking a phenomenon called the Kelvin wave, which is expected to drive even larger waves toward the region.
A NOAA scientist explained what causes them.
"Kelvin waves are created by weakened trade winds... even collapsed trade winds .... That is an imbalance that is really satisfied by something called an equatorial Kelvin wave... which is a big surge in the upper ocean," Nate Mantua, a scientist with NOAA said. "That can make it all the way up to southern California."
Mantua explained that Kelvin waves are caused by a surge of water along the equator that bounces off South America and travels up the coast. The waves are roughly 20 miles wide and raise sea levels by about 4 to 10 inches.
On top of an already active storm season and elevated sea levels driven by warm water temperatures, a surge of water is also traveling all the way from Argentina toward the California coastline.The combination of big, tall and frequent waves is battering the shoreline — leading to depleted or completely closed beaches.
For surfers who love big waves, the conditions are delivering. But the broader concern is the potential for more coastal flooding and further beach erosion.
"I think it's important to know that we've seen this many times in the past," Mantua said. "One of the big events of the recent past, in 1983, 1997, 1998 and in 2015 and 2016, you know that fall, winter periods came with big ocean Kelvin waves you know, along the equator along our coastlines."
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