Families should expect to pay about 5% less for their Thanksgiving meal this year compared with last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey released Wednesday.
The survey found a typical Thanksgiving dinner for a family of 10 will cost $55.18 this year, down from $58.08 in 2024 and $61.17 in 2023. A big reason for the drop is the falling price of turkeys. The AFBF said a typical 16-pound turkey costs $21.50, 16.3% less than a year ago.
One factor behind the decline is that many retailers are using turkeys as “loss leaders,” charging less to attract customers. Grocery chains often discount turkeys to draw shoppers, then make up sales on other products.
"So what we're seeing with turkeys is, yes, those wholesale prices are up, according to the USDA, by about 40%, but there's no guarantee that retailers are going to put that entire cost increase on the consumer," Kristin McGrath, senior editor at The Krazy Coupon Lady, said. "In fact, turkeys are what's known as a loss leader in the grocery industry. That means that it's something that they know gets people in the door. So retailers are maybe willing to absorb some of that cost increase knowing that someone's going to come in and buy all the ingredients for their Thanksgiving meal because they're going to get their turkey."
A Purdue University analysis noted wholesale turkey prices are still rising, but some stores aren’t passing those increases along to shoppers.
“Grocery retailers are competing for customers, and, in addition to turkeys, they sell everything else that you might put in your pantry,” the analysis says. “Therefore, some retailers offer significant discounts on turkeys to attract customers. For example, Walmart is currently selling whole turkeys for $0.98 per pound, less than half of our predicted average price. Consumers with time to compare prices across retailers may find substantial savings this season.”
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Prices fell for other staples including stuffing mix, pie crusts, dinner rolls and cranberries. Costs increased for frozen peas, milk, sweet potatoes and a vegetable tray of carrots and celery.
The decline in Thanksgiving meal costs comes despite overall food prices rising, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. The cost of food eaten at home increased 2.7% in the 12 months ending in September.
Faith Parum, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, said farmers are facing significant pressure from multiple factors.
“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” Parum said. “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen. The combination will help ensure turkey remains an affordable option for families celebrating Thanksgiving.”
The AFBF noted fresh produce prices can swing widely due to factors such as natural disasters and weather, which can affect supply.
The survey was conducted by volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. They sought the “best possible prices” without using special coupons or combined purchase deals.
