Sunday marks the beginning of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and this year could be a big one. It runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts we could see anywhere from 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 “major” hurricanes category 3 or above. Those numbers mean scientists were most likely going to see an above-average hurricane season, packing a bigger punch than normal.
This year a few factors make that more likely. Neutral El Niño conditions mean that weather pattern won’t be able to disrupt hurricane formation. El Niño tends to bring stronger vertical wind shear — winds changing direction with height — that tend to break up hurricane formation.
A few more factors exist such as a stronger West African Monsoon, which can create more “tropical waves,” the low pressure systems that can later become hurricanes in the Atlantic.
But a larger trend has been emerging for years — the ocean is getting warmer. 2024 was the warmest year for the ocean ever recorded, and many recent years have also set records.
This matters for hurricane formation because hurricanes need sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees to form. And since the ocean has been continually warming over time, researchers notice a greater number of hurricanes rapidly intensifying.
That means the warmer ocean water is causing hurricanes to get stronger, and it’s happening faster.
The climate research group Climate Central shows how that strengthened some hurricanes in 2024. Warmer ocean water is blamed for bringing Hurricane Helene from a category 3 to a category 4.
For scale, that’s the difference between a hurricane damaging your roof, or ripping it off.
This trend is also blamed for Hurricane Milton strengthening to a category five, easily strong enough to devastate neighborhoods and leave them unlivable for months.
Meantime Hurricane Beryl holds the record for the fastest to ever reach category 5.
So the outlook is clear: This hurricane season may be bigger than usual.
It’s worth noting that nothing is set in stone with long-range forecasts or seasonal outlooks, things can still change. This seasonal forecast also doesn’t also impact the west coast, since it falls under the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.
California rarely sees hurricanes impact it since the water is far too cold.
Federal staffing cuts could also impact hurricane responses.
While the National Hurricane Center is fully staffed, NOAA is down almost a thousand employees. That includes several hundred gone from the National Weather Service, which could impact communities inland from hurricanes.
While questions remain around what the weather will do this hurricane season, other questions swirl around hurricane preparedness around the country.
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