SAN DIEGO — Democratic Congressman Mike Levin has opened a commanding 20-point lead over Republican challenger Brian Maryott in coastal North County's 49th district, according to a new scientific poll.
The ABC-10News Union-Tribune poll shows Levin leading Maryott 56 percent to 36 percent, with the remainder undecided. It's an increase over the 49 percent to 37 percent lead Levin had over Maryott in a prior poll taken in mid-September. The district stretches from Del Mar into parts of southern Orange County.
"It's all over but the shouting," said political analyst John Dadian, who said the district has become increasingly democratic over the last 15 years. "It was getting bluer gradually, and now, the last election cycle and I believe this one, we're going to see the fruit come to bear."
Levin won the 49th District seat in 2018 after Republican Darrell Issa decided not to seek re-election after nearly two decades. Issa is now running for Congress in east county's 50th District, which leans Republican.
"We've seen a lot of the communities that have shifted to more in the democratic party since 2016 are these more suburban, well-educated communities like many of the communities in California's 49th," said Stephen Goggin, a lecturer in the political science department at San Diego State University.
The poll of 514 likely voters shows Levin getting the support of 68 percent of independents, with Maryott, a San Juan Capistrano councilman, getting just 15 percent of them. Both are getting the bulk of their backing from their own parties.
In an interview Tuesday, Levin said he was not taking anything for granted, and that the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
"This is the home stretch of an election, all hands on deck, leave no stone unturned. That's the only way I know and that's what we're going to do over the next three weeks," Levin said.
Maryott's campaign released a statement saying the race is much closer than what this poll shows.
"We see it firsthand, on a daily basis: as more voters uncover Mike Levin’s extreme record, support for Brian Maryott increases significantly. We put our trust in the voters, not polls," the statement said.
The SurveyUSA poll reports that 13 percent of respondents already voted, and 63 percent are 100 percent they will. It also shows Joe Biden defeating President Trump in the district, 56 percent to 39 percent.
SurveyUSA surveyed 650 voting-age individuals from Oct. 8 to Oct. 12.