El Nino: There's more uncertain weather to come

Posted at 10:55 AM, Feb 09, 2016
and last updated 2016-02-09 14:07:44-05
SAN DIEGO – The National Weather Service issued its latest El Nino update this week.
Since Oct. 1, 2015, the start of the water year -- to now, the San Diego region has already gotten more rain than each of the past 2 strong El Nino events. 
In those two, most of the rain came in February, March and even into April, but especially March. So there is still plenty of time for more storms to come. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above normal rainfall from Feb. 20 to March 4. 
The potential for significant rainfall still exists, but each winter has different impacts and weather events.
Keep in mind we only have two strong events to compare this to. That's a very small sample size. So as we said before the rainy season began, there's a lot that effects weather. 
El Nino does NOT guarantee above average rainfall in the winter, although it definitely increases the odds because the potential for storms exist.
- We've actually had droughts start in El Ninos. 
- We've had dry years in El Ninos
- The last wet year was a La Nina year right before our drought began
- Santa Ana events are still going to occur in El Nino years, like we're seeing now.  Santa Ana season peaks from December to February
And even with above average rain, the drought is not going to end with this winter.