CA POLL: Trump may get smaller percentage of popular vote than any GOP candidate in a century

Plus: Kamala Harris bid for U.S. Senate seems safe
Posted at 10:20 AM, Oct 17, 2016
and last updated 2016-10-17 17:28:11-04
SAN DIEGO -- With the final presidential debate this week, Donald Trump's support has quickly eroded in the Golden State where he risks getting a smaller percentage of the popular vote than any Republican candidate in the past 100 years.
The controversial GOP candidate's support has fallen to 30 percent, below the current low-water mark held by George H. W. Bush, who got 33 percent of the popular vote in California in a three-way contest in 1992. 
While both presidential front-runners have lost support in the past 17 days, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno, Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump remains steady at 26 percentage points. 
Compared to an identical poll conducted before the first presidential debate, Clinton is down three points, Trump is down three points and undecided voters have doubled. 
Trump's support has fallen among California's youngest voters, down from 29 percent in mid-September to 20 percent today. Among Independent voters his support has nose-dived during the same period from 28 percent to 17 percent.
Registered voters from all parties were asked what candidate would they vote for if they were filling out their ballot right now. Here is a breakdown of the responses:
  • Hillary Clinton: 56 percent
  • Donald Trump: 30 percent
  • Gary Johnson: 4 percent
  • Jill Stein: 2 percent

Seven percent of respondents were undecided. 

U.S. Senate Race 

The race to replace veteran United State Senator Barbara Boxer, Kamala Harris leads fellow Democrat and viral dabber Loretta Sanchez, 45 percent to 24 percent. However Harris' support among Latinos has dropped from 39 percent to 30 percent, while the number of Indepedents has increased from 27 percent to 35 percent. 

Proposition 64 - Legalization of Marijuana  

California's bid to become the latest state to legalize recreational marijuana still has an ever-so-slight lead. Proposition 64 would legalize and tax the use of marijuana by adults 21 and older. Fifty-one percent responded that they would vote in favor of the proposition while 40 percent said they would vote against it. 

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 10/13/16 through 10/15/16. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate on 10/09/16, and during a time of unflattering revelations about both Trump and Clinton. Of the adults, 820 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 725 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the Presidential election or as certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. Of registered voters, 3% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 6% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates.
The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (58% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. As a result, the outcome of Prop 64 cannot be assured at this hour.