News

Actions

Political analyst: District 4 Supervisor election will likely go to Nov. runoff

John Dadian political analyst
Political Analyst: District 4 Supervisor election won't end until November
Posted at 6:35 PM, Aug 16, 2023
and last updated 2023-08-16 21:35:14-04

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — There were still 20,000 votes to be counted in the race for San Diego County's District Four Supervisor seat as of Wednesday evening, but according to a local political analyst, it’s looking like a November run-off may be necessary. In that case, Monica Montgomery-Steppe would certainly be a candidate in the Special General Election, but it’s still uncertain whether she’d be up against Republican Amy Reichert or fellow Democrat Janessa Goldbeck.

ABC 10News sat down with political analyst John Dadian to see what he projects will happen moving forward.

“There really weren’t any big surprises," Dadian said. "Definitely a run off. Definitely the two Democrats split the vote, so the Republican got into the run-off.”

“After the redistricting this is a more Democratic district, is it surprising that Reichert won 29% of the vote?” ABC 10News reporter Perla Shaheen asked.

“It’s not surprising at all. She was working 24/7 on this campaign and keep in mind she ran against Nathan Fletcher before," Dadian said. "She had momentum going into it, so it didn’t surprise me at all she did as well as she did.”

The County Board of Supervisors is split down the middle of the political aisle, since two of the seats are held by Democrats, while Republicans hold the other two. Dadian was asked if this could lead to problems as the board waits for the fifth seat to be filled.

“Since Nathan Fletcher's resignation, we haven't seen a two-two split where they can’t agree on something. So I don’t expect to see that in the future,” he said.

The Registrar of Voters says 20% of registered voters submitted a ballot, and this doesn't surprise Dadian. If there’s a run off, he’s hopeful more voters will come forward in November.

“The constituency they represent is more than 20 states. They have more power than 20 governors. So, we forget how big this is — big time politics. We think this is local San Diego... This is big time politics.”

Dadian says the board is waiting to choose the next Chief Administrative Officer. Big decisions like that will come after the fifth board member is elected.