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Poll shows eight state propositions leading

Voters taking to the polls
Posted at 4:21 PM, Sep 29, 2020
and last updated 2020-09-29 19:21:14-04

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (KGTV) -- With 35 days until the election, it appears California voters are in favor of eight state propositions that impact everything from property taxes to parole to rent control.

Still, for most propositions, the support is not enough to feel comfortable.

A new ABC-10News-Union-Tribune scientific poll shows eight propositions leading outside the poll's 5.4 percent margin of error. Still, pollster Survey USA says that could change because typically opposition to all ballot measures increase as election day gets closer. Then again, it says 2020 is not a typical election year.

Thad Kousser, a political analyst at UC San Diego, said propositions that do not poll over 50 percent have an increased chance in ultimately failing, even if they are up.

"The more people learn about propositions and their details, the less there is to like about them," he said. "Sometimes a proposition has one part of it that people find attractive and then other details that they don't like, and as a campaign exposes those, as the No campaign makes that case, then support will drop off."

The poll also shows Joe Biden defeating President Trump 59 percent to 32 percent in California. Interestingly, however, the poll says voters who plan to vote in person on election day choose Trump over Biden, 55 to 38.

Here is the breakdown of the propositions as part of the poll, which surveyed 588 likely voters:

  • Prop 15, which would reassess some commercial properties to raise property taxes for schools and local governments, exempting smaller businesses and farms, is passing 49 to 21, with the remainder undecided.
  • Prop 16, which would eliminate the ban on consideration of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public education, public employment and public contracting to allow for more diversity, is passing 40 to 26, with the remainder undecided.
  • Prop 17, which restores voting rights to former inmates, is passing 55 to 19, with the remainder undecided.
  • Prop 19, which allows severely disabled homeowners, those over 55, and those who have lost their homes in a wildfire to transfer their property tax basis to any property in the state, and allocates new revenue to fire protection services, is passing 56 to 10, with the remainder undecided.
  • Prop 20, which would reclassify certain crimes and change parole on other crimes, is passing 35 to 22, with the remainder undecided.
  • Prop 21, which allows local governments to establish rent control on some properties over 15 years old, is passing 46 to 27, with the remainder undecided.
  • Prop 22, which aims to keep Uber, Lyft and Doordash drivers as independent contractors with benefits, as opposed to full employees, is passing 45 to 31, with the remainder undecided.
  • Prop 23, which adds requirements for kidney dialysis clinics, is passing 49 to 23, with the remainder undecided.