Poll: Jacobs retains double-digit lead over Gomez

Posted at 5:00 PM, Oct 20, 2020
and last updated 2020-10-20 20:22:21-04

SAN DIEGO — (KGTV) -- Democrat Sara Jacobs continues to hold a double-digit lead over Democrat Georgette Gomez in the race for California's 53rd Congressional District, according to a new scientific poll.

The ABC-10News Union-Tribune scientific poll shows Jacobs leading Gomez 40 percent to 27 percent, with 33 percent still undecided. The two Democrats are vying to replace Susan Davis, who is retiring in the central and south San Diego district after nearly 20 years.

The poll shows Jacobs, granddaughter of Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs, leading in support from those who describe themselves as liberal, moderate, conservative, and very conservative. Gomez, currently the City Council president, is generating most of her support from voters who describe themselves as very liberal.

"With only two weeks left to go until the election, Georgette Gomez is running out of time to close the gap on Sara Jacobs," said Thad Kousser, a political scientist at UC San Diego.

Kousser said the closer the election gets, the harder it will be for Gomez to catch up, because of the increase in mail-in ballots and early voting. The poll shows 26 percent of the respondents already sent in their ballots. Kousser said, however, that Jacobs still has not reached the 50 percent support threshold, leaving the door open for Gomez, who will have to convince most of the undecideds to support her.

"She hasn't been making substantial progress at the same time that she's being hugely outspent on the airwaves by Sara Jacobs," he said. Federal Election data shows Jacobs outspent Gomez nearly 5 to 1 through Sept. 30.

In an interview, Jacobs said she would not rest on polling.

"I worked on the 2016 presidential campaign so I love seeing good polls but I will continue working very hard for every last vote," she said. "It really comes down to each individual vote making that decision and we're going to try to talk to as many as we can over the next 14 days."

Gomez was attending a City Council meeting and not available for an interview Tuesday. However, campaign spokesman Dan Rottenstreich said the campaign was operating at full speed, and noted that Gomez gained some ground from the prior ABC-10 Union Tribune poll in September. That version showed Jacobs leading 38 percent to 24 percent, with 38 percent undecided.

"The election is far from over, and we're going to continue to mobilize our coalition," Rottenstreich said. "We're gaining ground. Voters are just now learning more and more about Georgette's story, her proven record and her bold agenda in Congress."

SurveyUSA polled 511 likely voters with a 5.6 percent margin of error.