Poll: San Diego County D.A. Bonnie Dumanis flirts with 50 percent needed to avoid runoff

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In her bid for re-election, San Diego County District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis has a comfortable lead against challenger Bob Brewer, according to a 10News/U-T San Diego poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

But whether she will get to 50 percent in the June 3 primary and avoid a runoff is less clear.

Dumanis is currently at 44 percent. That's 17 points atop Brewer, who is at 27 percent, and 38 points atop Terri Wyatt, who is at 6 percent.

If one assumes, for purposes of conversation, that the undecided voters, at 22 percent according to the poll, allocate themselves proportionally to the three candidates, then the revised projected vote totals on Primary Day would be: Dumanis 56 percent, Brewer 35 percent, Wyatt 8 percent.

That would put Dumanis comfortably atop the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff. Should support for Wyatt not materialize on Primary Day, Dumanis would have an additional tailwind.

By contrast, should the undecided voters "break for the challenger," as some argue they often do, then the contest would be closer.

Some other results from the 10News/U-T San Diego poll:

  • Dumanis is backed overwhelmingly by women, among whom she leads by 32 points, by older voters, by Democrats and by the least educated.
  • Brewer is backed by men, Hispanics, younger voters, conservatives, and the most affluent.
  • Dumanis has a Plus 22 Net Job Approval Rating: 45% of adults approve of the job she is doing as San Diego District Attorney; 23% Disapprove.

SurveyUSA interviewed 950 San Diego County adults 05/20/14 through 05/22/14. Of the adults, 806 were registered to vote in the County. Of the registered, 563 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before the deadline.

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