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Study Predicts Massive Mudslides In Burned Areas

More Than 400 Basins Burned By Fires Studied

POSTED: 10:25 am PST February 4, 2004
UPDATED: 10:56 am PST February 4, 2004

Heavy rains in areas burned by the Cedar and Paradise fires could trigger massive mudslides over the coming years, according to a federal study.

The study of more than 400 basins burned by the fires found that storms could set off flows and peak discharges of up to 6,000 cubic feet of mud and debris per second.

"If it's raining, leave," Susan Cannon, lead author of the study and a mudslide expert, told The San Diego Union-Tribune. "To think that you've built a sandbag wall that's going to protect the house ... is naive."

The $500,000 study, a preliminary assessment of the mudslide hazards caused by the fires, was conducted with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Forest Service.

The team used a formula based on factors such as the severity of the fires, the type of soil where the fire occurred and the slope of the land.

The study recommends that local officials inform merchants and residents living near the affected areas about the potential danger of mudslides.

Although the hazards can exist for up to three years, "it's pretty unusual to get debris flows after the second year," Cannon said.

Sand Bags Available
Sand bags are still available for residents of burn areas at five road stations:
  • Alpine: 2914 Tavern Road
  • Julian: 1524 North Highway 78
  • Lakeside: 13115 Willow Road
  • Ramona: 116 5th Street
  • Valley Center: 28565 Cole Grade Road

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