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Expert: Local Economic Outlook Is Positive

POSTED: 3:28 pm PST February 11, 2010
UPDATED: 4:33 pm PST February 11, 2010

The University of San Diego's local index of leading economic indicators rose .7 percent in December, the university announced Thursday.

For the first time since April 2004, all six of the components of the USD index -- building permits, unemployment insurance, stock prices, consumer confidence, help wanted advertising and the national economy -- were positive for the month.

The monthly index is compiled by economics professor Alan Gin for USD's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.

According to Gin, the outlook for the local economy is positive.

"It's pretty good news," Gin told 10News. "That shows that the gain was pretty broad based, that we got good news in a lot of aspects of the economy."

The biggest gain was the national economy, up 2.25 percent. That helps San Diego because a lot of local businesses do business nationally, and it helps local tourism.

Consumer confidence is up slightly, but it's up for the ninth month in a row.

"There are signs of recovery in some sectors of the economy, such as housing, where prices are up more (than) 8 percent from the low and where there has been a pickup in sales," the index states.

However, Gin cautioned that there is likely to be another wave of foreclosures as adjustable rate mortgages readjust and job losses take their toll.

The local job market is picking up, and at Jobing, where they match employers with prospective employees, job postings are up 10 percent to 20 percent in the last month.

"Things are getting better," said Spencer Dettman, General Manager of Jobing's San Diego office. "I don't think in any way, shape, or form we're out of this, but it's great to see some good stories."

As for the economic outlook for the rest of 2010, Gin said he sees good signs.

"It's not going to be spectacular, but considering where we were, it's a good start," said Gin.
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