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Scripps: El Niño Pattern Similar To '83, '98

POSTED: 5:02 pm PST February 9, 2010
UPDATED: 5:38 pm PST February 9, 2010

Researchers at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography said the El Niño pattern seen in the tropical Pacific is similar in some ways to the great El Niños of 1983 and 1998 -- minus the combination of a large storm and high tide.

Researchers told 10News there's a possibility the potentially destructive combination could occur within the current El Niño.

The 1982-83 El Niño caused major destruction along the San Diego coastline. Dan Cayan, researcher at Scripps Institute of Oceanography, said it was one of the worst El Niños on record, largely due to the powerful storms that occurred on top of high tides.

"(In) 1982-83, we had two or three storms like that, and it virtually cleaned the West Coast of all vulnerable structures that had been living peacefully," said Cayan.

During El Niño of 1998, the conditions were very similar to 1983. For example, water completely covered the sand in Mission Beach, and the high tide was responsible for flooding out the boardwalk.

Experts said high tides usually occur at the beginning, middle and end of the month, when the moon is full or new.

With the direction the current El Niño is headed, Cayan said it's possible another big storm system could hit at such a time, within the next month or so.

"The storm season will continue through some time in March, probably. We've got a couple of large tide events in between now and then," said Cayan.

Experts said significant heating took place in the tropical Pacific during January 1983. Fifteen years later in 1998, a similar heating pattern was seen and a little more red along the California coastline.

In January of this year, the El Niño pattern is clearly visible, but not nearly as strong.

Cayan said, "While our sea levels are probably a little bit elevated this season, they're nowhere near what they were in those two previous events."

Cayan called this a respectable, moderate size El Niño. He said he wouldn't be surprised if ocean temperatures along San Diego's coastline remained warmer through summer.
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