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Study: Tide Patterns Could Help Predict Quakes

POSTED: 5:57 pm PST December 23, 2009
UPDATED: 8:20 am PST December 24, 2009

A University of California, Berkeley study released Wednesday may provide some help in predicting when the next big earthquake will strike in San Diego and around the state.

Fears about "the big one" -- an earthquake that would devastate the state -- are focused on the San Andreas Fault, and scientists at UC Berkeley are looking at outside factors that could aid in learning when the fault might rupture.

The study's theory is tied to the moon and what is seen with the ocean. The gravitational pull from outer space causes high tide and low tide, and the study examines how that might impact the land and earthquake faults.

San Diego State University geology professor Patrick Abbott told 10News, "One of the 'Holy Grails' in earthquake science is early prediction of earthquakes, and we have zero ability."

Geologists study faults on-site; taking measurements, documenting data and developing charts and graphs. They set up monitoring sites miles beneath the earth's surface.

Abbott looked at a synopsis of the study, and said, "The seismogenic zone, the zone for earthquakes, goes 12 miles deep … go down 15 miles, below big earthquakes and there they've had some funny little movements that occurred with the sun and the moon's stronger gravitational pull.

"It sounds logical, but needs to be proven. So, if the land is rising with high tides and dropping with lesser pulls; if you have a fault there ready to move and tides are making things move up and down any way, it makes sense. Maybe that's when the fault will snap loose and give us the next big earthquake."

Abbott said even the slightest glimmer of hope that we could peer into the future of these faults is worth pursuing. "It might be grasping at straws, but you follow everything. That's science. Never close your mind," he said.
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