SAN DIEGO -- Evidence shows the weather phenomenon known as El Nino is brewing once again in the Pacific. If it fully develops, it could mean a quick end to mandatory water restrictions.

We've come to accept little or no rain but next winter we might get more storms and rain than we expect.

David Pierce with Scripps Institute of Oceanography tracks the weather phenomenon. His graphs show ocean water warming up which in turn creates storms in the Pacific.

"It's like dropping a rock into a stream," he said. "It wiggles the high and low pressure systems that actually direct ranfall over us."

Those storms are carried on the jet stream which over the last few years have stayed well north of us. When there's an El Nino, the jet stream drops down bringing winter storms with it.

The last big El Nino flooded the coastline and clogged storm drains in 1997-98, but in 1982 and 83 the storms with high tides wreaked havoc. Relentless pounding by the surf collapsed piers and businesses like the Marine Room in La Jolla found their dining room underwater. Pictures of the damage hang in the restaurant's waiting room.

"This is where your fish has to be fresh," Marine Room Executive Chef Bernard Guillas said, "but when the fish are swimming in the kitchen it just doesn't work."

The glass is thicker than it was then, but Chef Bernard said El Nino waves still shake the building. It's dinner with a twist, he said.

At Scripps, David Pierce's graph showed in yellow just how far down the warming effect has gone. But for now the El Nino he is tracking is only a moderate one.

"When you get these moderate El Ninos it absolutely doesn't guarantee you'll have a wet winter," he said. "What it says is you won't have a dry winter."

But any rain is better than none. Even if this El Nino only brings San Diego's rainfall back to average it would be a huge improvement.

The normal average is over ten inches of rain, but it's been well under that for three years. We received only about three-and-a-half inches in 2007, about seven-and-a-half inches the next year, and this year just over six inches.

Researchers said they'll have a better gauge on the strength of this El Nino and the weather patterns it's likely to create by September.