10News/U-T San Diego poll: Faulconer takes commanding lead in race to be San Diego's next mayor

Outpacing David Alvarez with just weeks to go

SAN DIEGO - Numbers tell the story. Kevin Faulconer has taken a commanding lead in the race to be San Diego's next mayor. According to the latest 10News/U-T San Diego poll released Sunday morning, Faulconer has the support of 53 percent of likely voters. David Alvarez has 37 percent.

Those numbers are quite different from a similar 10News/U-T San Diego poll conducted last month. Faulconer is up six points. Alvarez is down nine points. That December poll showed the two councilmen in a dead heat to replace former Mayor Bob Filner. Faulconer had support of 47 percent of likely voters, and Alvarez had 46 percent in the poll conducted by 10News/U-T San Diego pollster SurveyUSA on Dec. 6, 2013.

Regardless of the results of the polls, both candidates told 10News their campaigns are on track.

"I am who I've always been. That's what I'm campaigning as," Alvarez said. "The things I stand for have never changed."

Faulconer told 10News his campaign is working hard to prove he is the right choice.

"We've been up, traveling the city going up and down with our message," he explained.

According to the 10News/U-T San Diego poll, Faulconer's entire advantage comes from voters who live north of Interstate 8. Faulconer has a two-to-one advantage over Alvarez in the northern part of the city. Faulconer and Alvarez are tied among voters who live south of I-8.

The biggest shift in support is among voters who are 35 to 49 years old. In the last 10News/U-T San Diego poll, Alvarez led by 11 points. Now, Alvarez trails by 21, a 32-point swing.

Ultimately, the numbers on Election Day are the only ones that count. To win, both candidates told 10News it will take a lot of hard work.

"It means being open and direct with voters about the challenges we face," Faulconer said. 

Alvarez has a similar strategy.

"We're going to make sure people turn out to vote, and we'll be successful," he said.

Election Day is Feb. 11.

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