Filner maintains lead over DeMaio in SD mayoral race
Filner has 47%, DeMaio 40% in latest poll
11:16 AM, Oct 15, 2012
7:42 PM, Oct 15, 2012
SAN DIEGO -
The latest scientific 10News poll shows San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio gaining some ground on Rep. Bob Filner in the San Diego mayoral race.
According to the poll, if the elections were held Oct. 15, three weeks before the first votes are counted, DeMaio would receive 40 percent of the votes compared to Filner's 47 percent.
Political analyst Carl Luna, Ph.D., said, "I wouldn't be putting money on this race."
Compared to the last poll released in September, Filner is now down three points while DeMaio is up two points.
Thirteen percent of the voters were undecided.
"I think when we say undecided, what we really mean is more ambivalent. These are voters who probably by now know something about Mr. Filner and Mr. DeMaio, but they're not enthused about either candidate," said Luna.
Of the voters who already turned in a ballot of the contest, about 24 percent of total voters polled, DeMaio lead with 47 percent to 42 percent.
Filner's lead is based on voters who say they are certain to vote for him on Election Day, but have not voted yet.
"The good news for Mr. DeMaio is there's still another three weeks left in the election cycle and he might squeak it out if he keeps going this way," said Luna.
The latest poll found that among males, DeMaio is now leading at 46 percent compared to Filner's 43 percent. DeMaio led in the poll among males in June, but Filner was on top in August and September.
The latest poll shows that Filner and DeMaio are tied among voters under age 50. In August and September, Filner was ahead in the age group.
In a statement, DeMaio said, in part, "As I have always said, voters will decide who their next mayor will be based on the candidates' record of results and vision for San Diego's future."
Filner pointed to his 10News poll track record, saying, "It has shown since June 5th that I have been consistently ahead by either 7 points or 12 points, but the only real poll is Election Day."
"If I was Bob Filner with a 5 to 6 point advantage going into this stage of the election, I'd be fairly happy," said Luna.
Luna said undecided and moderate voters may hold the key.
"These are people who, at the end of the day, won't vote or may not cast their ballot until Election Day and that could decide a close election," explained Luna.